Carlo Ancelotti has built his managerial legacy on control, structure, and clarity — but even he cannot fully stabilize a Brazil side that continues to wobble without Neymar. The Santos forward, battling to relaunch his career at 33, has endured injuries, criticism, and the pressure of returning home as the supposed savior of a club deep in crisis. Yet even in his diminished state, one worrying trend suggests why Ancelotti may still need him when the World Cup begins next year. That pattern, hidden behind a more mysterious headline statistic, has redefined the conversation around Brazil’s preparations.
Neymar’s form at Santos has been inconsistent, his fitness unreliable, but for Ancelotti, who wants a decisive and balanced Brazil team, the dilemma remains the same: can a team trying to rebuild its identity truly afford to go to a World Cup without its most unique attacking presence? His emotional homeland return was meant to be the rebirth. Instead, it has exposed every vulnerability in his game and every structural weakness in the club he came back to rescue.
The forward, once the most feared dribbler in soccer, has struggled badly. The numbers reinforce the story: seven goals, three assists, and large stretches spent recovering or protecting his fragile body. His attacking rhythm — once measured at 1.22 goal contributions per 90 across Barcelona and PSG — has dropped to 0.56 across Al-Hilal and Santos.
Neymar’s primary goal remains unchanged: to play at the 2026 World Cup. But Ancelotti has been blunt. Speaking to L’Equipe, the Brazil manager stated: “Neymar is on the list of players who can go to the World Cup… but he needs to show performance.” He repeated the same message in Lille during the October international window: “He now has six months to make the final squad… he must show all his qualities and his physical condition.”
The Italian has not called him up once. Not in October. Not in November. Not in the latest squad. And Neymar disputes the idea that his exclusion is fitness-related. The veteran superstar explained that he “was left out for technical reasons; it has nothing to do with my physical condition.”
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The turning point: The hidden data revealed
The mysterious trend behind the headline becomes unavoidable once placed in the middle of Brazil’s long post-Neymar timeline: Brazil has won only 42% of its matches since Neymar’s knee injury in October 2023. Across 27 matches, Brazil has 11 wins, 10 draws, and six defeats. This is not a collapse — but it is not Brazil.
It is a team unable to dominate, unable to impose itself, and unable to break compact opponents. Over the course of two years, the Selecao has failed to score in seven matches, drawn ten, and often struggled to recover after conceding the first goal. The Copa America told the same story: a team that defends well, keeps shape, but cannot unlock games. That used to be Neymar’s specialty.
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Why Ancelotti needs Neymar — More than he admits
Every coach who has led Brazil in the modern era agrees on one thing: Neymar is irreplaceable when fit. Casemiro told ESPN Brasil: “For me, Neymar is indispensable… Neymar is incredible.” Ancelotti, too, knows the truth. He may insist the World Cup list will be purely “sporting,” but he also understands Brazil lacks a player who can destabilise a low block, win a foul, create chaos, or change the rhythm.
In the absence of Neymar, Brazil circulates the ball patiently, creates fewer overloads, relies on crosses, and, to make matters worse, it loses fluidity in the final third. With Neymar, everything shifts. Defences break shape. Lines stretch. Risks become viable.
