Airlines could see major fuel savings if the growing use of weight loss drugs leads to lighter passengers, according to a new analysis from Jefferies Research Services.
As GLP-1 weight loss medications become more widely available across the US, analysts say the broader impact could extend beyond healthcare and into aviation costs. Fuel consumption is directly tied to aircraft weight, including passengers, luggage, and onboard cargo, meaning even small reductions can translate into significant savings.
Airlines have long tried to cut weight wherever possible to reduce fuel burn, from lighter cabin materials to minor changes in food service. However, passenger weight has historically been outside their control.
How weight loss drugs could impact airline fuel costs
Jefferies said drugs such as Ozempic and Wegovy could meaningfully change that equation. If the medications result in a society that is 10% slimmer, total passenger weight across flights would fall by about 2%.
That reduction would translate into roughly 1.5% fuel savings for airlines and a projected 4% increase in earnings per share, according to the analysis.
To model the impact, Jefferies used a Boeing 737 Max 8. The aircraft weighs about 99,000 pounds empty and can carry up to 46,000 pounds of fuel. With 178 passengers averaging 180 pounds each and roughly 4,000 pounds of additional cargo, the total takeoff weight reaches 181,200 pounds.
If the average passenger weight drops by 10% to 162 pounds, total aircraft weight would fall to 177,996 pounds. That difference, Jefferies found, would scale to meaningful fuel savings across large fleets.
The firm estimates that lighter passengers could save the top four US carriers, American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines, and United Airlines, about $580 million in fuel costs annually.
Those airlines are expected to spend a combined $38.6 billion on jet fuel this year. Jefferies said the updated analysis follows a similar report released in 2023 and comes amid pharmaceutical companies expanding weight loss treatments into pill form.
