The UEFA Champions League is only two rounds old, and already, expectations are being flipped on their head. A supercomputer, known for calculating probabilities across competitions, has identified a new and rather unexpected frontrunner to lift the trophy in Budapest next May. While Paris Saint-Germain sits third on the list of favorites, and Barcelona and Real Madrid are far behind in the early projections, it is one English contender that has suddenly emerged as the leading candidate, superseding the likes of Liverpool and Manchester City.
This shift has raised eyebrows across Europe, especially as the reigning champion PSG continues to show strength, and Bayern remains a formidable force. Still, the algorithm now tilts towards a club many didn’t expect to see on top of the rankings this early.
At the beginning of the campaign, Liverpool had been tipped as the main favorite. That seemed logical enough: Arne Slot’s side opened with a high-profile 3-2 victory against Atletico Madrid, sending an early statement of intent. But in their second match, the Reds stumbled, falling 1-0 to Galatasaray in Istanbul.
That slip proved costly, at least according to the Opta supercomputer. The defeat recalibrated the predictions, stripping Liverpool of its early edge. The calculations instead favored a new leader—one who has begun its European campaign with maximum points and a sense of calm authority.
Another Premier League side emerges as surprise leader
The name behind the mystery is Arsenal. According to Opta’s updated model, the Gunners now stand as the club most likely to lift the trophy in Budapest on May 30, 2026. The North London side has been flawless so far. Arsenal opened with an away win against Athletic Bilbao and followed up with a solid 2-0 home victory over Olympiacos, leaving them with six points from six and a 100% record.
The supercomputer now gives Mikel Arteta’s players an 18.09% chance of winning the Champions League, ahead of Liverpool’s 14.70% and PSG’s 13.96%. For comparison, Manchester City sits at 9.71%, Bayern Munich at 9.50%, and both Barcelona (8.25%) and Real Madrid (4.94%) lag far behind. “The recalculated route sees Arsenal as the most likely candidate to go all the way this season,” the Opta report noted.
Crowded field of contenders
While Arsenal’s leap to the top may surprise, the race is far from decided. PSG, fresh off a dramatic last-minute win in Barcelona, remains in third place on the probability charts. Bayern Munich has also kept a perfect record, while Inter and Qarabaq are the other clubs still boasting 100% winning starts.
Interestingly, Qarabaq’s inclusion among the perfect starters is historic, though the Azerbaijani side has virtually no statistical chance of lifting the trophy. Still, their two wins mark one of the standout underdog stories of the campaign so far.
Meanwhile, Real Madrid—winner of the competition 15 times—finds itself with just a 4.94% chance despite boasting Kylian Mbappe in dazzling form, including a hat-trick against Kairat Almaty. Barcelona, similarly, sees its hopes pegged back after a narrow defeat to PSG at home.
